I, like many, have an irrational belief in my own drafting ability. I do my research. I don’t actually scout players but I listen to podcasts, I follow scouting twitter and I make a hell of a spreadsheet. Confirmation bias reminds me of all my correct picks. My incorrect picks just need more time or…
Dynasty IDP Deep Dives
My IDP leagues are all very deep. They’re all 16-team equivalent with full IDP starters, 1 DT, 2 DEs, 3 LBs, 2 CBs, 2 Ss and 1 Defensive Flex. Most “sleepers” are already owned. You have to dig a little deeper to find potentially useful players. Full disclosure, most of these guys will never produce…
Defensive Rookie Draft Board
You can find my draft board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jJIOIxh_–c7Zt-TZtxaQyyUdZhaCpvecBDnveaiDQs/edit?usp=sharing I use Rotoworld as a starting point for all depth charts. In some cases, I take a little creative license. Rotoworld can be a little conservative at times. The Ravens took Marlon Humphrey in the 1st Round. He may not start right away, but I doubt he’s…
Offensive Rookie Draft Board
You can find my draft board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jJIOIxh_–c7Zt-TZtxaQyyUdZhaCpvecBDnveaiDQs/edit?usp=sharing You’ll see it’s only drafted players. I’m not going to draft any UDFAs this year, but if I was, Travis Rudolph would be at the top of the list. If you haven’t heard his story, check it out. If all you hear about this draft class is…
Tiers
Eric Coleman had a legitimate criticism of the research. Calling a LB who has had a LB46 and an LB47 season a starter compared to someone who has put together multiple top 16 seasons isn’t very helpful in evaluating draft picks. So I decided to take this all a step further and add tiers. I…
Conclusion
I can wrap all this up with one sentence. Draft as many top NFL draft picks as possible. #analysis. I’m sure no one has come up with that strategy to date. You don’t really need to read all the position breakdowns unless that information is really interesting to you. The two tables in this post…
Cornerback
The same disclaimer applies for CB as applied for DT. The sample size is just too small. 51 drafted over ten years. In a CB-required league, that number would be markedly higher. Round Drafted Starters Startable Rate 1 34 22 64.7% 2 11 3 27.3% 3 3 0 0.0% 4 3 0 0.0% Round…
Linebacker
Year Drafted Starters Startable Rate LB1 Seasons LB2 Seasons LB3 Seasons 2004 21 7 33.3% 17 14 6 2005 27 7 25.9% 20 9 15 2006 25 8 32.0% 16 19 7 2007 27 7 25.9% 19 18 5 2008 22 3 13.6% 8 2 6 2009 22 3 13.6% 8 5 4 2010…
Defensive Ends
Year Drafted Starters Startable Rate DE1 Seasons DE2 Seasons 2004 12 1 8.3% 5 6 2005 9 1 11.1% 4 0 2006 10 6 60.0% 13 7 2007 11 2 18.2% 2 7 2008 11 3 27.3% 11 5 2009 9 1 11.1% 1 7 2010 15 6 40.0% 17 8 2011 12 9…
Defensive Tackle
Year Drafted Starters Startable Rate 2004 5 2 40.0% 2005 5 3 60.0% 2006 5 1 20.0% 2007 3 0 0.0% 2008 5 1 20.0% 2009 3 0 0.0% 2010 4 2 50.0% 2011 5 1 20.0% 2012 3 1 33.3% 2013 3 0 0.0% Average 4.1 1.1 26.8% Four of the 11 DTs…
Tight Ends
Year Drafted Starters Startable rate TE1 Seasons 2004 7 2 28.6% 10 2005 6 1 16.7% 7 2006 10 3 30.0% 13 2007 6 2 33.3% 11 2008 9 4 44.4% 13 2009 10 2 20.0% 5 2010 10 5 50.0% 21 2011 8 2 25.0% 7 2012 9 1 11.1% 4 2013 11…
Wide Receivers
Year Drafted Starters Startable rate WR1 Seasons WR2 Seasons WR3 Seasons 2004 26 7 26.9% 11 17 13 2005 26 5 19.2% 11 7 4 2006 24 4 16.7% 17 8 7 2007 25 6 24.0% 12 7 10 2008 28 6 21.4% 9 13 10 2009 32 10 31.3% 11 17 10 2010…
Dynasty Rookies 