Wide Receivers

 

Year	Drafted	Starters	Startable rate	WR1 Seasons	WR2 Seasons	WR3 Seasons
2004	26	7	26.9%	11	17	13
2005	26	5	19.2%	11	7	4
2006	24	4	16.7%	17	8	7
2007	25	6	24.0%	12	7	10
2008	28	6	21.4%	9	13	10
2009	32	10	31.3%	11	17	10
2010	30	8	26.7%	18	11	8
2011	23	6	26.1%	10	9	5
2012	31	6	19.4%	4	10	7
2013	24	2	8.3%	2	3	5
Average	26.9	6.0	22.3%	10.5	9.2	7.9

Of the 60 WRs who have had multiple startable seasons, 24 of them were startable as a rookie. So a wide receiver who wasn’t startable year 1 has a 14.7% chance of producing multiple starting seasons. 16 startable WRs weren’t startable as a rookie or sophomore. So WRs who aren’t startable as a rookie or sophomore have a 7.1% chance of being startable.

NFL Draft

Round	Drafted	Starter	Startable rate	WR1 Season	WR2 Season	WR3 Season
1	38	25	65.8%	52	39	30
2	41	13	31.7%	23	17	20
3	52	8	15.4%	10	20	10
4	48	6	12.5%	7	14	7
5	27	3	11.1%	0	2	6
6	27	2*	7.4%	5	4	4
7	21	3*	14.3%	8	6	3
UDFA	15	0	0.0%	0	0	0

I will say, a 7.4% success rate for 6th Round WRs is rough. The reason these players still get drafted is when they hit, they hit big. The two 6th round Starters are Antonio Brown and Pierre Garcon. The three 7th round starters are Marques Colston, Julian Edelman and Stevie Johnson. AB has put up three straight WR1 overall seasons in a row. Colston owns nine consecutive startable seasons including five as a WR1.

 

Of all 5th round or later WRs, there have been (8) players to put up multiple starting seasons. This actually includes Denarius Moore with his league winning WR37 and WR47 seasons. Marques Colston was startable in Year 1. Technically, as WR48, Johnny Knox was startable as a rookie. Every other 5th round or later WR needed a year or more to develop before starting. Antonio Brown was WR22 as a sophomore and WR38 in his 3rd year before fully becoming Antonio Brown. Stevie Johnson wasn’t startable his first two seasons. In Year 3, Stevie was WR10. Julian Edelman had his first startable season in Year 5. This is definitely another factor to consider when drafting late round WRs, you’ll need to hold them on your roster for a while to get any potential return on your investment.

Fantasy Rookie Draft

Round	Average Drafted	Average Starters	Startable Rate	NFL Draft Breakdown
1	4.6	2.7	58.7%	32-1st rounders (84.2%) 12-2nd rounders (29.3%) 2-3rd rounders (3.8%)
2	4.0	1.3	32.5%	6-1st Rounders (15.8%) 20-2nd Rounders (48.8%) 8-3rd Rounders (15.4%) 6-4th Rounders (12.5%)
3	4.3	0.7	16.3%	5-2nd Rounders (12.2%) 21-3rd Rounders (40.4%) 8-4th Rounders (16.7%) 7-5th Rounders (25.9%) 1-6th Rounder (3.7%) 1-UDFA (6.7%)
4	3.1	0.4	12.9%	2-2nd Rounders (4.9%) 11-3rd Rounders (21.2%) 11-4th Rounders (22.9%) 4-5th Rounders (14.8%) 3-6th Rounders (11.1%)
5	3.1	0.4	12.9%	2-2nd Rounders (4.9%) 7-3rd Rounders (13.5%) 9-4th Rounders (18.8%) 4-5th Rounders (14.8%) 5-6th Rounders (18.5%) 4-7th Rounders (19.0%)
6	2.5	0.2	8.0%	2-3rd Rounders (3.8%) 8-4th Rounders (16.7%) 4-5th Rounders (14.8%) 6-6th Rounders (22.2%) 3-7th Rounders (14.3%) 2-UDFAs (13.3%)
7	2.8	0.3	10.7%	1-3rd Rounder (1.9%) 4-4th Rounders (8.3%) 4-5th Rounders (14.8%) 6-6th Rounders (22.2%) 8-7th Rounders (38.1%) 5-UDFAs (33.3%)
8	2.5	0.0	0.0%	2-4th Rounders (4.2%) 4-5th Rounders (14.8%) 6-6th Rounders (22.2%) 6-7th Rounders (28.6%) 7-UDFAs (46.7%)

The first wide receiver was taken at average pick 5.0 exactly. In 2011, A.J. Green went at 1.01. In 2007 (Megatron) and 2009 (Michael Crabtree), the first WR went at 1.02. At the opposite end of the scale, in 2006, Chad Jackson was the first WR off the board at 1.11. In 2008, James Hardy went 1.10.

Six 1st round WRs dropping to the 2nd round of rookie drafts in a decade is unusual. Dynasty Wars is .5 ppr, so that devalues WRs a bit. It was warranted though as only one of these (6) WRs had multiple startable seasons. Will Fuller was still going in the first round of all my rookie drafts last year, so it’s safe to assume all 1st Round NFL WRs will go in the 1st Round of rookie drafts.