Defensive Rookie Draft Board

You can find my draft board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jJIOIxh_–c7Zt-TZtxaQyyUdZhaCpvecBDnveaiDQs/edit?usp=sharing

I use Rotoworld as a starting point for all depth charts. In some cases, I take a little creative license. Rotoworld can be a little conservative at times. The Ravens took Marlon Humphrey in the 1st Round. He may not start right away, but I doubt he’s 4th on the depth chart.

They also seem to be waiting until training camp before retooling the 49ers defensive depth chart. We know San Fran will be switching to a 4-3, but we don’t know where all the pieces fit in so the depth chart has remained a 3-4 on Rotoworld.

 

DT

This isn’t the year to need DTs. Unless  Jonathan Allen or Solomon Thomas get classified DT, not a single DT was taken in the 1st Round. Malik McDowell had 1st Round talent but seems uncoachable after admitting at the combine that he didn’t listen to coaches. Seattle hedged their bet by taking another DT in the 3rd Round.

None of these guys were taking Round 1 so I’m probably passing on all of them in Rookie Drafts. I’ll add a few to my watchlist if they go undrafted, but this is a groupe I’m avoiding.

 

DE

In the lead up to the draft, I was most excited about TEs and Ss. After the draft, I’m most excited about TEs and DEs. The landing spots for several safeties are pretty disappointing. The landing spots for several DEs are really encouraging though. Seven Edge players were drafted in the 1st Round and only one of them will end up as a 3-4 OLB in year 1.

Myles Garrett is obviously the first DE off the board, for good reason. He’ll probably be gone in the 1st Round of most rookie drafts. I would draft him starting in the 3rd Round so I’m not going to get him anywhere.

Solomon Thomas is an interesting prospect. Most expect him to play 4-3 DE and move inside during passing plays, like Michael Bennett in Seattle. Rotoworld hasn’t updated the San Fran depth chart to their new 4-3 alignment, probably because they just don’t know how it’s all going to play out. DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead will both need to play somewhere but we might not know until training camp. This leaves Thomas in flux as well.

Derek Barnett and Charles Harris both have some depth chart climbing to do but they’re both worth draft picks if they’re available in the 4th or 5th round of rookie drafts. Barnett will get to play in the Wide 9 which really benefits athletic DEs. Barnett isn’t overly athletic but should still be able to produce. Harris will be a situational pass rusher to start.

Takk McKinley and Taco Charlton are both already considered starters on their teams and could start producing immediately. They’re worth draft picks in the 3rd and 4th round of rookie drafts.

Round 2, which has been shown to be less productive than Round 3, was a wasteland. Two Edges drafted, both going 3-4 OLB.

But Round 3 delivered. Seven Edges drafted with only two 3-4 OLB adding five more players to the defensive draft board.

I don’t think any of these guys will get the necessary snap count to produce as rookies. None are higher than 4th on their depth charts. But I’m going to grab two or three of Dawuane Smoot, Jordan Willis, Daeshon Hall, Derek Rivers and Trey Hendrickson at the ends of drafts. They will be sitting on my Taxi Squad all season and will hopefully start producing next year or the year after.

 

3-4DEs

A few of the DL in this draft have ended up as 3-4 DEs and are of note in drafts. Jonathan Allen went in the 1st Round to Washington. He immediately becomes the best player on that D-Line. He has DeForest Buckner-like upside as a rookie.

DeMarcus Walker and Tanoh Kpassagnon both went in the 2nd Round. Denver drafted Adam Gotsis in the 2nd Round last year. They’re really doubling down to find Malik Jackson’s replacement across from Derek Wolfe. It obviously isn’t Jared Crick. Kpassagnon is Jaye Howard’s replacement and will probably rotate with Chris Jones and Allen Bailey.

Chris Wormley and Montravius Adams were drafted in the 3rd Round. They’re both crap shoots with some players ahead of them on the depth chart.

 

LB

Hassan Reddick, Jarrad Davis and Reuben Foster will all go in the first or second round of rookie drafts. Davis may be the safest pick of the bunch manning the middle in Detroit’s defense.

Foster is risky because of his health and off-field issues. He was kicked out of the combine for getting into a verbal altercation with a member of the medical staff. He failed the combine drug test with a diluted sample meaning he’s already a member of the NFL drug program. And he dropped in the draft because many teams took him off their board for medical reasons, ranging from a badly injured shoulder to a concussion history. He’ll be productive for as long as he’s on the field.

Reddick is a wild-card. He walked on at Temple as a DB. This last year, he played as a DE. At the Senior Bowl, he excelled as a ILB. Arizona is very creative with their defense. They may use Reddick as an ILB next to Bucannon, or they may use him as an OLB across from Chandler Jones, or they may use him as both, playing OLB in base snaps and ILB in sub packages. There is a little risk in drafting Reddick.

Raekwon McMillan and Zach Cunningham both went in the 2nd Round but they are not both in the 2nd Tier. McMillan should earn playing time immediately but it looks like he could be at the SAM, limiting his upside. If Lawrence Timmons ends up at the SAM and Kiko Alonso moves to the WILL, the MIKE would be open for McMillan to produce. Cunningham may be Brian Cushing’s replacement and could be starting next to Benardrick McKinney for the next several years, scoring lots of fantasy points.

The 3rd Round gave us Duke Riley, Alex Anzalone and Kendell Beckwith. Anzalone has the easiest route to a 3-down role, but he gets injured a lot. Riley could cut into De’Vondre Campbell’s snaps, making them both less viable starters. Beckwith has the hardest climb to relevance with Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander in the way.

After that, it becomes a crapshoot for who has the easiest path to playing time. Ben Gedeon could be the starting WILL in Minnesota. Most expect Jalen Reeves-Maybin to take over the WILL from Tahir Whitehead in Detroit. Matt Milano has to beat Ramon Humber to be Buffalo’s WILL. The 29-year old Humber had 16 total tackles last season. Anthony Walker and Marquel Lee both landed in murky depth chart situations that could provide early opportunity.

 

CB

If you’re going to spend a draft pick on a CB, you should get one who figures to play early on. Marshon Lattimore, Adoree’ Jackson, Gareon Conley, Tra’Davious White, Kevin King and Quincy Wilson all figure to get playing time early on. Jackson should supplement his defensive production with punt and kick return TDs. Oakland would be crazy to have faced the potential media firestorm from taking Conley in the 1st Round unless they planned on playing him. King is the name on this list that I potentially question, but Green Bay’s corners were one of the weaknesses of their defense last year.

 

S

The Safety class turned somewhat disappointing during the draft. Several landed in inopportune situations.

 

Good Landing Spots

Jamal Adams to the Jets is just about perfect. He’ll be the Strong Safety as they drafted Marcus Maye in the 2nd to play Free Safety. The Jets’ LBs aren’t great at the moment, creating a lot of tackle opportunities for Adams. He should be starting and producing straight away. The only potential limitation on his production could be his versatility which could see him covering TEs and slot WRs. He should be the first Safety off the board, unless…

Jabrill Peppers was very polarizing. If you’re a Wolverine fan, you probably think he’s one of the best players in this or any draft. If you’re a Buckeye, you probably think he’s hot garbage. Either way, landing in Cleveland, under Gregg Williams, will produce a ton of opportunity for him. He should pile up plenty of tackles. He’s probably the only guy who could be drafted higher than Adams given how much some guys love him.

The most prevalent player comp for Budda Baker was Tyrann Mathieu. So Baker ending up in Arizona peaks my interest. Arizona usually has three safeties on the field because their CB depth chart after Patrick Peterson is a mess. If Baker gets on the field and the Cards use him similarly to the Honey Badger, he could be very productive.

 

Free Safeties

Malik Hooker, Marcus Maye and Marcus Williams should all start immediately. They all already sit atop their respective depth charts. Justin Evans is behind only Keith Tandy on the Bucs depth chart. I would venture to guess he will be starting soon as well. John Johnson could be starting soon for the Rams as well.

I prefer to pass on Free Safeties if possible as most don’t have the tackle opportunities to produce fantasy points. They’re really dependent on defensive scheme for tackle opportunities. Hooker will still go highly and I’ll draft a better player that falls in his place.

 

Bad Landing Spots

Obi Melifonwu was a very popular name getting 1st Round buzz as the draft process progressed. He went in the 2nd Round to Oakland. This landing spot is rough. Karl Joseph is locked into the SS spot. Melifonwu could play some FS, slot corner or even outside corner. If he ends up in the slot a ton, he’ll have some chances to produce, otherwise he’s going to get overdrafted and will underproduce.

Josh Jones from NC State was a guy with definite SS potential. He ended up behind Morgan Burnett. Burnett does get banged up on a regular basis but injury fill-in might be all you’re getting if you draft Jones. The Packers let Micah Hyde walk in free agency. Hyde played 90+% of the snaps most games last year so if Jones takes over Hyde’s role, he will still have a chance to produce.

Delano Hill just made it in the 3rd Round requirement for a S to remain on my board. Unfortunately, he ended up in another bad landing spot. In Seattle, he’ll be behind Kam Chancellor and FA signee Bradley McDougald. McDougald could be backing up both Chancellor and Earl Thomas. Given Seattle’s weakness at CB, McDougald could also end up playing in the slot in the Nickel. None of those possibilities end with lots of production from Delano Hill.