Offensive Rookie Draft Board

You can find my draft board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jJIOIxh_–c7Zt-TZtxaQyyUdZhaCpvecBDnveaiDQs/edit?usp=sharing

You’ll see it’s only drafted players. I’m not going to draft any UDFAs this year, but if I was, Travis Rudolph would be at the top of the list. If you haven’t heard his story, check it out. If all you hear about this draft class is Joe Mixon, Ishmael Zamora, Caleb Brantley, etc. Rudolph’s story will restore your faith in football players.

I’m going to go through the offensive players fairly quickly. Plenty of people who are much smarter than me and watch a lot more football than me will rank the offensive skill position players. I’m simply going to look at them from the perspective of the previous rookie drafts.

 

QBs

The Starters

Mitchell Trubisky, Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are the only guys on my QB board. Of the three, DeShaun Watson is the most likely to play 16 this year. Trubisky and Mahomes both have starters in front of them for at least a portion of the season.

DeShone Kizer was taken in round 2. He feels a lot like Christian Hackenberg. No one expects him to be ready in the first year. He’s a long-term project, but the Browns have two 1sts and three 2nds in next year’s draft. If the roster shows signs of improvement, which most think it will with Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers and David Njoku highlighting the latest additions, but Kizer isn’t improving as quickly, it would be really easy to see the Browns taking another QB in the 1st Round next year.

 

The Replacements

Davis Webb (3rd Round), Joshua Dobbs (4th Round) and Nathan Peterman (5th Round) are all going to be drafted somewhat highly in rookie drafts with the expectation of them replacing their current starters soon. Eli and Big Ben are both getting very close to retirement. Roethlisberger even hinted at it this offseason. Both offenses are stacked with elite skill position players and both teams are still using top draft picks to improve their offensive depth charts.

I’m going to skip all three. I think the chances of any of the three becoming starters are fairly low. Outside of Dak Prescott last year, Colin Kaepernick and Kyle Orton are the closest this type of draft pick can call a success story in recent years. Brock Osweiler was drafted by the Broncos in the 2nd Round in 2012, the same offseason they signed Peyton Manning. Osweiler was expected to learn under Manning and be the Heir Apparent. That hasn’t worked out so well…

Garrett Grayson was drafted in the 3rd round in 2015. Everyone assumed he would eventually replace Brees. He hasn’t sniffed the field and the Saints are already looking at drafting another QB for when Brees eventually retires. The Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb in the 2nd Round in 2007. Donovan McNabb played in Philly through 2009. Kolb peaked in 2011 when he put together a QB29 season.

 

The Next Dak Prescott

CJ Beathard will be drafted by optimistic drafters who think he’ll be the next Dak Prescott. The last Dak Prescott was Russell Wilson in 2012 so we’re not due another one for 4-5 years. In single QB leagues, if Beathard is still available on the waiver wire after drafts, I’ll pick him up for free on the potential. He’s got Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley ahead of him on the depth chart, neither of whom has proven to be a reliable starter. Odds are, San Fran either signs Kirk Cousins or drafts a QB next year. I’m not going to spend a draft pick on CJ. And I’m a Hawkeye fan.

 

The Backups

That leaves Brad Kaaya and Chad Kelly. They will be drafted as backups. Kaaya will be sitting behind Matthew Stafford for his rookie contract. In four years if he has a few good preseasons, he’ll become a free agent and want to sign somewhere where he can compete as a starter. The team that signs him will also draft a rookie and the rookie will end up as the starter.

Mr. Irrelevant himself enjoyed a nice nap during the draft. Matt Waldman said Chad Kelly was potentially the most talented QB in this class but he has ADD. Again, if he’s available off the waiver wire after the rookie draft, I’ll give him a look and maybe stash him for a year or two. The Broncos have shown that a 7th Round QB can start for them if he’s the best option.

 

RBs

Draftable

The decade of drafts I looked at showed only top 3 round drafted RBs were worth consideration in Rookie Drafts. That caps the number at eight draftable RBs. Four rookie RBs came out of draft weekend sitting atop of their respective depth charts, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCafferty, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. Obviously all should produce in fantasy leagues. You can pick your favorite.

 

Kareem Hunt has the next easiest shot at being a starter with a substantial workload. He only has Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West to supplant. Both have produced in spurts but both are also UDFAs.

 

Alvin Kamara, D’Onta Foreman and James Connor will all be backups and handcuffs to start. Kamara will be drafted assuming he’s earned the Darren Sproles/Reggie Bush role in the Saints offense. Connor needs to be drafted by anyone who has Le’Veon Bell for Bell’s next injury/suspension.

 

4th Rounders

There were seven RBs drafted in the 4th Round. These seven will be the test of the historical data.

Samaje Perine will be high on rankings lists as it’ll be fairly easy for him to climb to the top of the depth chart. Marlon Mack will be drafted very highly as everyone will see Frank Gore’s replacement in a productive offense. Jamaal Williams will be a Packer, behind only a converted WR on the depth chart. Joe Williams has a great opportunity in Shanahan’s offense. Wayne Gallman is the potential remedy to an anemic rushing attack in a prolific offense. Donnell Pumphrey and Tarik Cohen will be change of pace backs with Darren Sproles-ceilings and Dri Archer-floors.

But the numbers say only one of these players will produce multiple startable seasons. Last year, everyone loved Kenneth Dixon. He was drafted in the 4th round and the depth chart in front of him wasn’t scary. But unless, he puts up Le’Veon Bell-level production in the 12 games he could potentially play this year, he’ll be two years in without producing a startable season which doesn’t bode well for future production.

Obviously one example doesn’t make a trend. Tyler Ervin was drafted in the 4th Round last year. He had great opportunity in a Bill O’Brien offense behind Lamar Miller. Some pictured Ervin as the receiving back like James White in New England. The Texans turned around and drafted D’Onta Foreman in the 3rd Round a year later.

Devontae Booker was also drafted in the 4th Round last year. He actually produced the RB26 season last year once CJ Anderson got hurt. He’ll have opportunity again this year as CJ Anderson has gotten hurt every year and Denver boosted their O-Line while waiting until the 6th Round to draft another RB. But Booker was bad last year when he did get opportunities and Denver signed Jamaal Charles dropping Booker to 3rd on the depth chart.

In 2015, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen and Mike Davis were drafted in the 4th Round.

The 4th Round RB love has already begun. The Monday after the draft, I saw a twitter poll. Someone was already in the 2nd round of their IDP Superflex rookie draft. DeShaun Watson, Chris Godwin and Marlon Mack were all available. Mack had the most votes. More people wanted a 4th Round RB who’s not the starter than a 1st Round QB who should be starting immediately and throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller under an offensive head coach. Note to owners in my leagues: please post twitter polls when you’re on the clock…

Someone in one of my leagues gloated about getting Perine at 1.12 in another league. I’m assuming it wasn’t an IDP league. I’ll even assume it isn’t superflex. A 4th Round RB as the 12th best player in a fantasy draft. The 1st Round netted 8 RBs/WRs/TEs. The 2nd Round added another 7. That’s 15 players right there in the first two rounds that should easily be taken over a 4th Round RB. It’s up to 18 when you include the three 1st Round QBs. But this is the time of year when drafters get caught up chasing perceived opportunity instead of listening to a team’s very specific value on a player. Matt Jones was a 3rd Round pick in 2015. The Redskins placed a higher value on Jones than Perrine.

 

5th-7th Rounders

For most of the guys drafted after the 4th round, it’s easy for fantasy owners to tell a story about how that player could be successful. Brian Hill is behind only Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman on ATL’s depth chart. One injury and he could be productive. TJ Logan is behind only David Johnson and Kerwynn Williams on ARI’s depth chart. Etc. Etc. These stories can lead to these players getting drafted, but they will rarely ever come true. Moreover, the chances of that story ending in multiple years of production, rather than a few games when the starter goes down are even slimmer.

Just for fun, here’s what every team did in the draft at RB and their post-draft depth chart:

Team	NFL Draft	Depth Chart	Team	NFL Draft	Depth Chart
BUF	n/a	LeSean McCoy Jonathan Williams Joe Banyard	DAL	n/a	Ezekiel Elliott Alfred Morris Darren McFadden
MIA	n/a	Jay Ajayi Damien Williams Kenyan Drake	NYG	4 – Wayne Gallman	Paul Perkins Shane Vereen Wayne Gallman Orleans Darkwa Shaun Draughn
NEP	n/a	Mike Gillislee James White Dion Lewis Rex Burkhead	PHI	4 – Donnell Pumphrey	Darren Sproles Ryan Mathews Wendell Smallwood Donnell Pumphrey Byron Marshall
NYJ	6 – Elijah McGuire	Matt Forte Bilal Powell Elijah McGuire	WAS	4 – Samaje Perrine	Rob Kelley Chris Thompson Samaje Perrine Matt Jones Mack Brown
BAL	n/a	Terrence West Danny Woodhead Buck Allen Lorenzo Taliaferro Kenneth Dixon	CHI	4 – Tarik Cohen	Jordan Howard Jeremy Langford Benny Cunningham Tarik Cohen Ka’Deem Carey
CIN	2 – Joe Mixon 6 – Brandon Wilson	Joe Mixon Giovani Bernard Jeremy Hill	DET	n/a	Ameer Abdullah Theo Riddick Zach Zenner Dwayne Washington Mike James
CLE	7 – Matthew Dayes	Isaiah Crowell Duke Johnson George Atkinson III	GBP	4 – Jamaal Williams 5 – Aaron Jones 7 – Devante Mays	Ty Montgomery Jamaal Williams Aaron Jones Devante Mays
PIT	3 – James Connor	Le’Veon Bell Fitzgerald Toussaint James Connor Knile Davis	MIN	2 – Dalvin Cook	Dalvin Cook Latavius Murray Jerrick McKinnon Bishop Sankey CJ Ham
HOU	3 – D’Onta Foreman	Lamar Miller Alfred Blue D’Onta Foreman Akeem Hunt Tyler Ervin	ATL	5 – Brian Hill	Devonta Freeman Tevin Coleman Brian Hill Terron Ward
IND	4 – Marlon Mack	Frank Gore Robert Turbin Marlon Mack Josh Ferguson	CAR	1 – Christian McCafferty	Christian McCafferty Jonathan Stewart Fozzy Whitaker Cameron Artis-Payne Jalen Simmons
JAX	1 – Leonard Fournette	Leonard Fournette TJ Yeldon Chris Ivory Corey Grant	NOS	3 – Alvin Kamara	Mark Ingram Adrian Peterson Alvin Kamara Travaris Cadet Daniel Lasco
TEN	7 – Khalfani Muhammad	DeMarco Murray Derrick Henry David Fluellen Khalfani Muhammad	TBB	5 – Jeremy McNichols	Doug Martin Charles Sims Jacquizz Rodgers Jeremy McNichols Peyton Barber
DEN	6 – DeAngelo Henderson	CJ Anderson Devontae Booker DeAngelo Henderson Bernard Pierce	ARI	5 – TJ Logan	David Johnson Kerwynn Williams TJ Logan
KCC	3 – Kareem Hunt	Spencer Ware Charcandrick West Kareem Hunt Darrin Reeves CJ Spiller	LAR	n/a	Todd Gurley Lance Dunbar Malcolm Brown Aaron Green
LAC	n/a	Melvin Gordon Brandon Oliver Kenneth Farrow Kenjon Barner	SEA	7 – Christopher Carson	Eddie Lacy Thomas RawlsCJ Prosise Alex Collins
OAK	7 – Elijah Hood	Marshawn Lynch DeAndre Washington Jalin Richard Taiwan Jones Elijah Hood	SF	4 – Joe Williams	Carlos Hyde Tim Hightower Joe Williams DuJuan Harris Kapri Bibbs

 

WRs

Only wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds have had a decent startable rate. That makes for six draftable WRs this year. Third Round WRs still produce, just not at a very high rate.

 

Draftable

Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross are obviously the top tier. All three landed in solid situations. Everyone and their brother will break those three down in fantasy terms.

Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel and Juju Smith-Schuster form tier #2. Again, all three landed in solid spots. Jones is automatically WR2 where the WR1 has never played 16 games in a season. They don’t throw a ton but he’s automatically the second target. Samuel landed in an offseason that lost their speed receiver in the offseason and the top two WRs have both disappointed. One apparently showed up to training camp very overweight, which isn’t the first time he’s done that. Juju ended up one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. After AB, the Steelers have a lot of question marks.

 

3rd Round

Third Round NFL WRs only hit at a 15% rate. With eight drafted this year, that means one should be successful. Can you pick which one? Carlos Henderson was a Matt Harmon favorite. Chris Godwin will remind everyone of Allen Robinson. Chad Williams ended up in Arizona where he’s on the depth chart behind Larry Fitz (who will retire any year now (which we’ve been saying for a few years now)), John Brown (who has sickel cell) and JJ Nelson (who weighs 160 lbs) in a prolific passing offense.

These guys will all get drafted, probably by the 2nd or 3rd Round of rookie drafts.

 

Late Rounds

DeAngelo Yancey and Malachi Dupree deserve a quick mention, drafted in the 5th and 7th Rounds, respectively. When Green Bay drafts WRs, they almost always gain value at some point. Maybe you’ve heard of Jeff Janis… Ty Montgomery in the 3rd Round was obviously a special case. Jared Abbredaris was a 5th Rounder and had a small window of increased value in deeper leagues. Geronimo Allison was a UDFA and you could’ve sold him for a late round pick in deeper leagues last year.

If you reach for late round WRs, those two should be near the top of your late round list. And you should probably sell them as soon as they have increased value. The simple prospect of being on the field with Aaron Rodgers is usually enough to entice another fantasy owner into a trade, but the Packers know where their bread is buttered. Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams and Randall Cobb are all former 2nd Round Draft picks. Next time the Pack takes a WR in the 2nd Round, throw all your draft capital at it.

 

TEs

A lot of people will tell you not to draft TEs in Rookie Drafts because rookie TEs so rarely produce. But it’s dynasty. I’m going to take the long view and I’m going to target TEs in Rookie Drafts this year. Three TEs haven’t been drafted in the 1st Round since 2002. That probably isn’t the best scenario as Jeremy Shockey was the only noteworthy fantasy addition, unless you count marrying Hope Solo as a fantasy addition.

From 2004-2013, every single 1st Round TE has produced at least one Top 10 fantasy season. Tyler Eifert and Marcedes Lewis are the only two who had one startable season to date. The other eight 1st Round TEs have all had a minimum of three Top 16 seasons. Four have had five or more startable seasons. I will be drafting as much OJ Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku as I can. I don’t even care if I end up with two of them on the same team.

I’m not stopping at the Top 3 either. Historical data showed 4th Round TEs were over 20% startable. That makes seven draftable TEs, which is more than the draftable WRs this year.

Gerald Everett was drafted as a weapon for Jared Goff. Athletically, he’s very similar to Njoku. He may have already surpassed Tyler Higbee on the depth chart. If you’re not an Everett believer, Higbee’s price dropped substantially Friday night, now’s the time to buy. Adam Shaheen has a great opportunity. Zach Miller has been productive but is rarely healthy and Dion Sims didn’t do much when given the opportunity in Adam Gase’s extremely TE-friendly offense. Jonnu Smith is now the Heir Apparent to Delanie Walker. Walker turns 33 before the season starts, but buyer beware, drafters have been drafting the Heir Apparent to Jason Witten for years and it hasn’t really worked out for them.

I don’t know too much about Michael Roberts. He’s not the most athletic but it’s clear Detroit isn’t sold on Eric Ebron. I remember a play last year with Detroit running the ball. Ebron was motioned into the backfield to be the lead blocker for the RB. Ebron missed his block and stepped to the side to have a little temper tantrum. Meanwhile, the RB actually avoided the defender Ebron had whiffed on but was quickly tackled by the next defender into the backfield, who Ebron could’ve easily blocked if he hadn’t thrown a little temper tantrum. Former Top 10 pick Eric Ebron, in case I hadn’t mentioned that.

I’m probably actually reaching for the a few of the 5th rounders before I grab Roberts, but everyone else I’m drafting.

 

5th Round

The rookie drafts I mined for data weren’t complete. They showed 5th Round TEs as being unstartable, but not all 5th Round TEs were drafted in rookie drafts. I even like a few of the TEs taken in the 5th Round this year. Jake Butt would’ve been drafted higher if he hadn’t hurt his knee in the Bowl game. But he lands in one of the best situations as Denver has been looking for a receiving TE to complement their top two WRs and the depth chart is still muddy. He’s been going well above his 5th Round draft stock in early rookie drafts.

I’m a Hawkeye fan so I like George Kittle. A top 2 blocking TE from a school that specializes in block TEs, Kittle ran a 4.52 40 at the combine. He may be the next Henry Krieger-Coble or he could be used in the passing offense.

Finally, Eric Saubert from Drake was drafted by Atlanta at the end of the 5th Round. Josh Norris was a big Saubert guy. If he’s available in the 6th round or off waivers, I’ll definitely take a look.