Tiers

Eric Coleman had a legitimate criticism of the research. Calling a LB who has had a LB46 and an LB47 season a starter compared to someone who has put together multiple top 16 seasons isn’t very helpful in evaluating draft picks. So I decided to take this all a step further and add tiers.

I skipped TE, DT and CB for this exercise as there isn’t enough data and differentiating between a starter and a stud when you only start one becomes fairly arbitrary.

 

Baselines for QB tiers (I’m in a 16-team equivalent Superflex league. That’s really the only type of league this data will be useful for.):

Low-End Starter = (2) Top 32 Seasons

High-End Starter = (3) Top 16 Seasons

Stud = (4) Top 10 seasons

 

Baselines for LB and WR tiers:

Low-End Starter = (2) Top 48 Seasons

High-End Starter = (4) Top 32 Seasons

Stud = (4) Top 16 Seasons

 

Baselines for RB, DE and S tiers:

Low-End Starter = (2) Top 32 Seasons

High-End Starter = (4) Top 32 Seasons

Stud = (4) Top 16 Seasons

 

NFL Draft	Total Drafted	LE Starter	LE Rate	HE Starter	HE Rate	Stud	Stud Rate
QB
1	28	9	32.1%	3	10.7%	8	28.6%
2	13	4	30.8%	1	7.7%	0	0.0%
3	13	2	15.4%	1	7.7%	0	0.0%
RB
1	27	12	44.4%	4	14.8%	5	18.5%
2	28	6	21.4%	0	0.0%	4	14.3%
3	21	3	14.3%	1	4.8%	3	14.3%
4	29	1	3.4%	3	10.3%	0	0.0%
WR
1	38	15	39.5%	4	10.5%	6	15.8%
2	41	7	17.1%	2	4.9%	3	7.3%
3	52	4	7.7%	4	7.7%	0	0.0%
4	48	5	10.4%	0	0.0%	1	2.1%
DE
1	40	11	27.5%	1	2.5%	6	15.0%
2	26	3	11.5%	0	0.0%	2	7.7%
3	14	1	7.1%	3	21.4%	1	7.1%
4	16	2	12.5%	1	6.3%	0	0.0%
Off-Ball LB
1	19	6	31.6%	5	26.3%	5	26.3%
2	39	9	23.1%	5	12.8%	7	17.9%
3	38	3	7.9%	1	2.6%	2	5.3%
4	36	3	8.3%	1	2.8%	0	0.0%
S
1	14	4	28.6%	6	42.9%	0	0.0%
2	28	6	21.4%	3	10.7%	3	10.7%
3	20	3	15.0%	1	5.0%	1	5.0%
4	19	1	5.3%	1	5.3%	0	0.0%

 

QB – All studs drafted during the decade were taken in the 1st round. Russell Wilson could change that as early as this season. Kirk Cousins has a chance to do it in 2018. But this just further emphasizes the fact, you can fade all QBs taken after Round 1. In my deep Superflex draft, Nathan Peterman, CJ Beathard, Davis Webb, Brad Kaaya, Josh Dobbs and Jerrod Evans will all be drafted even though they’ll be drafted outside the 1st round of the NFL draft.

In that deep of a league, those guys still have value. If they end up as backups and the starter in front of them goes down, they will play but the best outcome is potentially Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tyrod Taylor. I’ll watch each of those guys get drafted and I’ll smile and pick up the potential studs who drop.

 

RB – By these stricter guidelines, only (1) stud  was drafted after the 3rd Round, Arian Foster. I am more willing to draft 2nd and 3rd Round RBs though. The Stud rate is so similar for 1st through 3rd Round RBs. One of the six LE Starters in the 2nd round is Le’Veon Bell. He’s had (3) top 16 seasons so he could go from being a LE starter to a Stud this year.

 

WR – I heard someone say that the Patriots can’t judge whether WRs will fit in their system based on college tape so they prefer not to draft WRs. Obviously, they drafted Edelman and recently Malcolm Mitchell. But Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Brandon Lloyd and Chris Hogan were all picked up off other teams’ rosters. WR is a difficult position to project. It’s got a low 1st Round Stud Rate and drops from there.

Two studs and one HE Starter were drafted between Rounds 6-7. If everyone else useful is gone, dig deep on that WR board. Look for the next Antonio Brown, but plan on hitting the next Craig Bragg (I’m a Bears fan and I don’t even recognize that name…)

 

DE – Again, the 3rd Round is looking better than the 2nd Round. Part of that surely stems from the smaller number of drafted DEs from the 3rd Round. Not every DE drafted in the 3rd Round of the NFL draft was drafted in Rookie Drafts, making it even easier to grab them late. I will be stocking up and if any of them don’t get drafted, they will be priority free agents for me.

No studs were drafted after the 3rd Round. The Stud Rate for 1st Round DEs and WRs are both relatively low at 15%. DE is a difficult position to project. Luckily it’s also one of the highest drafted positions in the 1st Round so you can keep taking shots.

 

LB – First Round Off-Ball LBs have the second highest Stud Rate. Again, I can’t justify drafting defensive players in the first two rounds of a rookie draft because the opportunity cost is too high. The only useful offensive players are gone by the 3rd Round. But if anyone from my league is contemplating drafting Reuben Foster and Hassan Reddick in the 1st Round of our rookie draft, those numbers ought to convince them. I will take the offensive talent that drops and grab 2nd and 3rd Round LBs in the later in the draft.

No studs drafted after Round 3. The only HE starter after the 3rd round is the recently retired Stephen Tulloch. And that includes guys like KJ Wright, Vontaze Burfict and Brandon Marshall. All three of whom get drafted fairly highly in startups. Not something I can recommend at this point.

 

S – No 1st Round Studs shows you how fluky this information can be, and how fluky Safety production can be. Three 1st Round players have put together (3) Top 16 seasons apiece. All three could become studs this year (Harrison Smith, Eric Berry and Mark Barron). Of course, you can do that exercise with every position. Meanwhile, one of the 2nd Round studs (Johnathan Cyprien) signed to a new team this offseason and could easily stop producing if the Titans draft a SS in this deep Safety class. One stud and (2) HE Starters were drafted after the 3rd round.