Linebacker

 

Year Drafted Starters Startable Rate LB1 Seasons LB2 Seasons LB3 Seasons
2004 21 7 33.3% 17 14 6
2005 27 7 25.9% 20 9 15
2006 25 8 32.0% 16 19 7
2007 27 7 25.9% 19 18 5
2008 22 3 13.6% 8 2 6
2009 22 3 13.6% 8 5 4
2010 22 5 22.7% 8 5 6
2011 26 4 15.4% 0 6 7
2012 22 10 45.5% 15 9 11
2013 26 3 11.5% 7 2 2
Overall 240 57 22.8% 118 79 67

This table is admittedly more useless than most of the tables I’ve put on here because it includes everyone MFL had classified as a LB. Dynasty Wars uses tackle heavy scoring so that definitely skews the startable rates of these LBs. So I started splitting out Edge LBs from Off-Ball LBs. Let’s do Edge LBs first to get them out of the way.

Edge LBs

Round Drafted Starters Startable Rate LB1 Seasons LB2 Seasons LB3 Seasons
1 21 5 23.8% 3* 4 12
2 9 0 0.0% 0 0 1
3 6 0 0.0% 0 0 0
4 7 0 0.0% 0 0 0

*Two of these three LB1 seasons were DeMarcus Wareactually DE1 seasons. Jason Babin switched to DE and had his first startable season in Year 7. Much respect to Demarcus Ware was the only Edge LB who had an LB1 season as an Edge LB.

Edge LBs are just as risky NFL draft picks as DEs. It’s hard to project edges at the next level. In tackle heavy leagues, Edge LBs just aren’t startable. They don’t produce the tackle numbers necessary to compete with 3-4 ILBs and 4-3 Mikes and Wills. Von Miller is one of the best defensive players in the league and he is still drafted highly in fantasy. Yet in six years, he’s had (3) startable seasons, LB37 in 2011, LB27 in 2012 and LB27 in 2016.

Von MillerSome owners who draft Miller probably do so hoping he becomes a DE. He would become a top end DE if Denver switched to a 4-3, but Denver’s defense is so good, the chances of it transitioning are minimal. Khalil Mack was DE1 after switching from an OLB, but he has already been switched back to LB. Or they’re playing him as their LB4 and hoping his 3-sack weeks will win them matchups like a D-Jax or JJ Nelson.

Myles Garret should go 1.01 to Cleveland who switched to a 4-3 in the offseason. If for some reason, the Browns Cleveland this thing and Garrett ends up as a 3-4 OLB somewhere, he will be untouchable in tackle heavy fantasy. I will gladly allow someone else to draft him highly. I may try to trade for him if whatever team drafts him potentially transitions to a 4-3.

Off-Ball LBs

Going forward, I’m only including linebackers drafted who ended up in a 4-3 or as 3-4 ILB.

Round Drafted Starters Startable Rate LB1 Seasons LB2 Seasons LB3 Seasons
1 19 16 84.2% 45 24 17
2 39 21 53.8% 50 41 23
3 38 6 15.8% 11 5 7
4 36 4 11.1% 4 10 2
5 27 2 7.4% 2 2 2
6 17 1 5.9% 1 1 0
7 15 0 0.0% 0 1 0
UDFA 6 2 33.3% 2 1 4
197 52

Of the 52 LBs who had multiple starting seasons, Shaq Thompson24 were startable as rookies. This is almost half, meaning if they’re not startable as a rookie, there’s a good chance they’ll never be startable. This percentage is driven up by the fact that 48 LBs are startable vs 32 in most positions. If a LB isn’t startable as a rookie, his chance of multi-year startablility drops to 16.2%. Sixteen more LBs had their first startable year as Sophomores. This drops the startability rate to 7.6% for LBs who weren’t startable in the first two years. I still think Shaq Thompson will be startable at some point, but his chances are dropping. Three LBs, in a decade weren’t startable until Year 4 (Stephen Tulloch, Wesley Woodyard and Desmond Bishop).

Round Average Drafted Average Starters Startable Rate NFL Draft Breakdown
1 2.0 1.7 85.0% 10-1st Rounders (52.6%)

9-2nd Rounders (23.1%)

1-3rd Rounder (2.6%)

2 3.1 1.5 48.4% 8-1st Rounders (42.1%)

18-2nd Rounders (46.1%)

5-3rd Rounders (13.2%)

3 2.1 0.6 28.6% 1-1st Rounder (5.3%)

5-2nd Rounders (12.8%)

7-3rd Rounders (18.4%)

6-4th Rounders (11.1%)

1-5th Rounder (3.7%)

1-6th Rounder (11.8%)

4 2.8 0.3 10.7% 5-2nd Rounders (12.8%)

9-3rd Rounders (23.7%)

10-4th Rounders (27.8%)

1-5th Rounder (3.7%)

2-6th Rounders (11.8%)

1-7th Rounder (6.7%)

5 2.5 0.3 8.3% 2-2nd Rounders (5.1%)

8-3rd Rounders (21.1%)

4-4th Rounders (11.1%)

8-5th Rounders (29.6%)

2-6th Rounders (11.8%)

1-UDFA (16.7%)

6 2.0 0.3 15.0% 1-3rd Rounders (2.6%)

11-4th Rounders (30.6%)

2-5th Rounders (7.4%)

1-6th Rounder (5.9%)

3-7th Rounders (20.0%)

2-UDFAs (33.3%)

7 2.6 0.1 3.8% 6-3rd Rounders (15.8%)

4-4th Rounders (11.1%)

7-5th Rounders (25.9%)

4-6th Rounders (23.5%)

4-7th Rounders (26.7%)

1-UDFA (16.7%)

8 2.5 0.4 16.0% 1-3rd Rounder (2.6%)

1-4th Rounder (2.8%)

8-5th Rounders (29.6%)

7-6th Rounders (41.2%)

7-7th Rounders (46.7%)

2-UDFA (33.3%)

Patrick Willis (2007) and Rolando McClain (2010) were the earliest LBs taken at 1.05. Jonathan Vilma (2004) was the latest LB1 taken at 1.14. Rueben Foster is going to go in the 1st round of the NFL draft. He will also be drafted in the first round of rookie drafts. The question will be who else will go that highly. Hassan Reddick is getting a ton of 1st Round buzz.

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