Defensive Ends

 

Year Drafted Starters Startable Rate DE1 Seasons DE2 Seasons
2004 12 1 8.3% 5 6
2005 9 1 11.1% 4 0
2006 10 6 60.0% 13 7
2007 11 2 18.2% 2 7
2008 11 3 27.3% 11 5
2009 9 1 11.1% 1 7
2010 15 6 40.0% 17 8
2011 12 9 75.0% 22 11
2012 14 3 21.4% 5 3
2013 12 2 16.7% 3 2
Average 11.5 3.4 28.7% 8.3 5.6

Of the 33 DEs who produced multiple startablejea 1247 vikes bucs seasons, only 10 were startable as Rookies. This drops the startable rate to 21.9% for sophomores who weren’t startable as rookies. Nine DEs had their first startable year as Sophomores while 10 had their first startable year in Year 3. If a DE wasn’t startable in Year 1 or Year 2, there’s still a 14.6% chance they will produce startable numbers in multiple years. This is the highest rate of any position after not being startable the first two years. Defensive Ends require the most patience. Brian Robison (Year 5) Everson Griffin (Year 5) and Rob Ninkovich (Year 8) all required very patient owners.

NFL Draft

Round Drafted Starters Startable Rate DE1 Seasons DE2 Seasons
1 40 18 45.0% 45 28
2 26 5 19.2% 15 8
3 14 5 35.7% 13 10
4 16 3 18.8% 3 7
5 10 2 20.0% 4 3
6 4 1 25.0% 3 1
7 5 0 0.0% 0 1
UDFA 0 0 0.0% 0 0

These numbers are lower than any other position. There are some factors to point to for this. DE is quite possibly the most fluid position. Some DEs become DTs in the NFL. Others become OLBs. Melvin Ingram, Whitney Mercilus, Shea McClellin and Bruce Irvin were all 1st Round DEs in 2012. McClellin is the only who has played any DE. They all have played OLB for most or all of their careers.

Olivier VernonI think the other reason these startable rates are so low is that DE is probably the 2nd hardest position to predict outside of QB. Still looking at 2012, Quinton Coples was picked at NFL 1.16. He turned into a bust. Vinny Curry was picked at 2.27. He hasn’t really been given a chance to play in the turmoil of the Chip Kelly’s Eagles. Devon Still was drafted at 2.21. He hasn’t done anything. Olivier Vernon is arguably the best DE from this class. He was drafted 3.09. Akiem Hicks blew up this year. He was drafted 3.26.

This is an interesting trend. The NFL 3rd Round DEs Yannick Ngakouehave a higher startable rate than the NFL 2nd Round DEs. Justin Tuck (2005), Charles Johnson (2007), Cliff Avril (2008), Michael Johnson (2009) and Olivier Vernon (2012) were all 3rd Rounders in the NFL draft. More recently, Danielle Hunger (2015) and Yannick Ngakoue (2016) were both 3rd Rounders. Since they’re so much cheaper, it almost makes sense to load up on 3rd Round NFL DEs and hope one of them hits. 42.9% of DEs drafted in the 3rd round in the NFL draft lasted until the 7th round of fantasy rookie drafts.

Another quick note for those with Ngakoue on their roster, over the decade, (11) DEs were startable as rookies. Mark Anderson was the only startable rookie DE to never be startable again. The bigger concern would be a possible switch to LB like Vic Beasley.

Round Average Drafted Average Starters Startable Rate NFL Draft Breakdown
1 0.3 0.3 100.0% 3-1st Rounders (7.5%)
2 1.1 0.4 36.4% 9-1st Rounders (22.5%)

2-2nd Rounders (7.7%)

3 1.6 0.5 31.3% 13-1st Rounders (32.5%)

2-2nd Rounders (7.7%)

1-3rd Rounder (7.1%)

4 2.4 0.6 25.0% 7-1st Rounders (17.5%)

11-2nd Rounders (42.3%)

5-3rd Rounders (35.7%)

5 1.5 0.7 46.7% 3-1st Rounders (21.4%)

5-2nd Rounders (19.2%)

2-3rd Rounders (14.3%)

4-4th Rounders (25.0%)

1-5th Rounders (10.0%)

6 1.5 0.1 6.7% 3-1st Rounders (7.5%)

2-2nd Rounders (7.7%)

7-4th Rounders (43.8%)
3-5th Rounders (30.0%)

7 1.5 0.3 20.0% 1-1st Rounder (2.5%)

1-2nd Rounder (3.8%)

6-3rd Rounders (42.9%)

1-4th Rounder (6.3%)

3-5th Rounders (30.0%)

1-6th Rounder (25.0%)

2-7th Rounders (40.0%)

8 1.6 0.5 31.3% 1-1st Rounder (2.5%)

2-2nd Rounders (7.7%)

4-4th Rounders (25.0%)

3-5th Rounders (30.0%)

3-6th Rounders (75.0%)

3-7th Rounders (60.0%)

The first DE off the board comes on average Mario Williamsat pick 22.0. The highest was Mario Williams in 2006 at pick 1.10. The lowest was Erasmus James at 3.12 in 2005. Defensive End is almost impossible to predict prior to the NFL draft because so many players will end up as 3-4 Outside LBs. If Myles Garrett goes at the top of the draft and ends up as a 4-3 DE, he will probably be drafted late in the 1st round of rookie drafts. Mario Williams went 1.01 in the NFL Draft. Chris Long went 1.02. Ezekiel Ansah went 1.05. Those three are the only DEs to go in the first round in Dynasty Wars rookie drafts. Other top 5 NFL Draft DEs were taken early in the 2nd round.

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