Tight Ends

 

Year Drafted Starters Startable rate TE1 Seasons
2004 7 2 28.6% 10
2005 6 1 16.7% 7
2006 10 3 30.0% 13
2007 6 2 33.3% 11
2008 9 4 44.4% 13
2009 10 2 20.0% 5
2010 10 5 50.0% 21
2011 8 2 25.0% 7
2012 9 1 11.1% 4
2013 11 3* 27.3% 9
Average 8.9 2.5 25.8% 10.0

Six of 25 startable TEs were startable in their first year. So a TE who wasn’t startable in Year 1 still has a 22.9% chance to be startable. Twelve of the 25 startable TEs were startable for the first time in their Sophomore campaign. So if a TE isn’t startable in their first or second year, they have a 9.9% chance of being a starter. The only two startable TEs that weren’t startable in their first three years were Martellus Bennett and Jared Cook. Bennett needed a team change to be startable, getting out from Jason Witten’s shadow. Cook is Cook. There’s no real explaining that.

NFL Draft

Round Drafted Starters Startable rate TE1 Seasons
1 10 8 80.0% 40*
2 17 8 47.1% 29
3 21 5 23.8% 17
4 19 4 21.1% 14
5 8 0 0.0% 0
6 4 0 0.0% 0
7 4 0 0.0% 0
UDFA 3 0 0.0% 0

*Every single 1st Round TE had Tyler Eifertat least 1 startable season. One of the non-starters is Tyler Eifert, who has only had (1) startable season.

 

Obviously, 19 isn’t a large enough sample size, but any TE drafted after the 4th round is now immediately off my draft board. That’s not true. They’ll still be on my draft board because I like my draft board to be complete, but they will be in red. Ben Braunecker and Stephen Anderson were two UDFA TEs with a lot of buzz last year. I would look to offload them if they’re still on your roster. Maybe they’d be worth a 6th round pick to someone. Josh Norris has been pushing Eric Saubert from Drake this year. A Chicago guy who went to school in Iowa, I am all over that train. Even so, if he doesn’t get drafted by the 4th round, I’m going to have to pump the brakes a bit.

Round Average Drafted Average Starters Startable Rate NFL Draft Breakdown
1 0.7 0.6* 85.7% 5-1st Rounders (50.0%)

1-2nd Rounders (5.9%)

1-4th Rounders (5.3%)

2 1.4 1.0 71.4% 5-1st Rounders (50.0%)

6-2nd Rounders (35.3%)

3-3rd Rounders (14.3%)

3 1.2 0.3 25.0% 4-2nd Rounders (23.5%)

5-3rd Rounders (23.8%)

2-4th Rounders (10.5%)

1-5th Rounder (12.5%)

4 1.1 0.4 36.4% 2-2nd rounders (11.8%)

3-3rd Rounders (14.3%)

4-4th Rounders (21.1%)

1-6th Rounder (25.0%)

1-7th Rounders (25.0%)

5 1.1 0.1 9.1% 1-2nd Rounder (5.9%)

4-3rd Rounders (19.0%)

5-4th Rounders (26.3%)

1-5th Rounder (12.5%)

6 1.1 0.1 9.1% 1-2nd Rounders (5.9%)

2-3rd Rounders (9.5%)

3-4th Rounders (15.8%)

4-5th Rounders (50.0%)

1-7th Rounders (25.0%)

7 1.1 0.0 0.0% 1-2nd Rounders (5.9%)

4-3rd Rounders (19.0%)

3-4th Rounders (15.8%)

1-5th Rounders (12.5%)

2-UDFAs (66.7%)

8 0.9 0.0 0.0% 1-2nd Rounder (5.9%)

1-4th Rounder (5.3%)

1-5th Rounder (12.5%)

3-6th Rounders (75.0%)

2-7th Rounders (50.0%)

1-UDFA (33.3%)

Seahawks 49ers FootballThe first TE off the board came at average pick 16.0. Vernon Davis was drafted the earliest, at 1.07 in 2006. Two years before, Kellen Winslow was drafted at 1.09. Kyle Rudolph was the latest first TE off the board in 2011 at pick 2.14.
Assuming OJ Howard, David Njoku and Evan Engram all go in the 1st Round of the NFL draft, they’re locks to been gone by the 2nd round on rookie drafts. There’s been talk Howard could go top 10. Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow were both drafted top 10 in the NFL draft and top 10 in rookie drafts. We can expect Howard to go similarly.

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